O-1 Visa Approval Rate 2026: Denials Nearly Doubled as Approvals Hit a Record

Reviewed by: Beth Persky, Esq.

The O-1 visa approval rate for the first three quarters of fiscal year (FY) 2026 is 91.0%. That figure is the USCIS approval rate for Form I-129 O petitions, which USCIS reports as one group covering O-1 beneficiaries and O-2 essential support personnel; it measures petition decisions, not visa issuance at a consulate. From October 2025 through June 2026, USCIS approved 21,321 O petitions and denied 2,096. That is the lowest rate since FY2021, and the change behind it is in denials, not approvals. The denial share nearly doubled, from 5.0% of decisions in July to September 2024 to 9.0% in April to June 2026, even as USCIS approved more O petitions in that last quarter (7,970) than in any quarter since at least FY2017.

The USCIS data also shows that most recorded denials involved petitions for which USCIS issued a Request for Evidence (RFE). In the first three quarters of FY2026, 98.8% of petitions decided without an RFE were approved, compared with 66.8% of petitions that received one, and a larger share of petitions received RFEs than a year earlier. Two policy changes since the data ends also matter for anyone filing now: since August 5, 2026, USCIS officers may deny a petition without first issuing an RFE, and on October 14, 2026, DHS proposed ending the regulation that requires deference to prior approvals in later petitions involving the same parties and facts. This post covers the data from FY2017, the growing caseload, rising demand, and the policy changes behind O-1 RFEs. All figures are historical; they describe how USCIS decided past petitions and do not predict the outcome of any individual case.

How is the O-1 approval rate calculated?

This post uses one formula throughout:

All USCIS figures come from the agency’s raw quarterly workbooks, Nonimmigrant Worker Petitions by Case Status and Request for Evidence, using the O sheet in each file: FY2017 to FY2024, FY2025, and FY2026 through June. Ashoori Law summed the monthly rows into quarters and years. Three cautions apply:

1. It is O-1 and O-2 together. USCIS titles the sheet “Individuals with Extraordinary Ability or Achievement and Essential Support Personnel (O).” USCIS does not publish an O-1-only series in these workbooks, so any O-1 approval rate derived from this USCIS data, here or elsewhere, includes O-2 petitions. Figures published by third parties that do not match this data are estimates or use other sources.
2. It counts petitions, not people. USCIS notes that the reports include both initial and extension filings, so an extension or a new employer petition for the same person counts as a separate decision.
3. Counts can be revised. USCIS notes that figures may differ from earlier reports due to system updates and later outcomes.

O-1 approval rate by fiscal year, FY2017 to FY2026

The federal fiscal year runs from October 1 to September 30, so FY2026 ran from October 1, 2025 to September 30, 2026. The FY2026 row covers only October 2025 through June 2026, the most recent data USCIS had published as of October 21, 2026; the final quarter (July to September 2026) had not been published.

Source: USCIS Form I-129 O petitions, raw quarterly RFE workbooks; rates calculated by Ashoori Law. FY2020 and FY2021 were affected by COVID-19 office and consular disruptions.

Denials nearly doubled while approvals hit a record

The quarterly figures show when the change started and what drove it:

• Denials nearly doubled in number and as a share. Quarterly denials rose from 396 to 789, and the denial rate from 5.0% to 9.0%.
• Approvals did not fall. The 7,970 approvals in Q3 FY2026 are the highest quarterly total in the USCIS series back to FY2017. The rate fell because denials grew much faster than approvals.
• A step down, then a plateau. The rate slipped through FY2025 and held near 91% for three straight quarters. The published data shows no continuing slide and no rebound through June 2026.
• FY2026 denials through June already exceed all of FY2025. The 2,096 denials in three quarters are 148 more than the 1,948 in the whole of FY2025. The approval rate is down 2.8 points from FY2025 (93.9%).

Why denials rose: most denials involved an RFE

USCIS does not publish denial reasons, but its workbooks do report, for each period, how many completions involved an RFE and how many of those were approved. The workbooks are aggregate counts, not case-level records, so they cannot show what evidence was missing or whether the RFE itself changed the outcome; an RFE is a procedural notice and often reflects gaps already present in the filing. With that limit, the RFE split lines up with most of the change:

Source: USCIS RFE workbooks, columns “Completions with RFE” and “Approved with RFE”; other columns calculated by Ashoori Law (approved without an RFE = approvals minus approvals with an RFE, divided by completions without an RFE; denials with an RFE = completions with an RFE minus approvals with an RFE).

• Petitions without an RFE were almost always approved. Every year since FY2017, 98.8% to 99.8% of petitions decided without an RFE were approved.
• Outcomes among petitions with an RFE. About two-thirds to three-quarters of petitions that received an RFE were approved in the end. In the first three quarters of FY2026, 66.8% were, the lowest share since FY2019 (66.1%).
• Both RFE measures changed in FY2026. More petitions received RFEs (24.2%, up from 19.7%), and fewer of those were approved (66.8%, down from 70.9%). Together these two shifts account for most of the arithmetic behind the higher denial rate.
• Denials without an RFE are a growing piece. They were 47 to 84 a year from FY2017 to FY2024, then 131 in FY2025 and 211 in nine months of FY2026, about 10% of FY2026 denials. This rise came before USCIS’s August 5, 2026 policy expressly allowing denials without an RFE. The USCIS file does not report Notices of Intent to Deny (NOIDs) separately, so some of these may have followed a NOID instead.

The practical point is that the initial filing carries more weight than it did a year ago. A petition that documents each criterion and the overall standard before an RFE is issued may still receive one, but it gives USCIS a complete record to decide on, and under the August 2026 policy an incomplete petition may be denied without an RFE at all.

The same pattern appeared from FY2017 to FY2020

The current shift is not the first. From FY2017 to FY2020, the O approval rate fell every year, from 94.1% to 89.7%, while the share of petitions receiving an RFE rose from 21.9% to 30.4%. During that period USCIS rescinded its policy of deference to prior approvals in extension cases (Policy Memorandum PM-602-0151, October 23, 2017) and issued a memorandum giving officers discretion to deny without first issuing an RFE or NOID (PM-602-0163, issued July 13, 2018, effective September 11, 2018). Both were reversed in 2021: USCIS restored deference through a Policy Manual update on April 27, 2021 and replaced the 2018 RFE memorandum with new Policy Manual guidance on June 9, 2021. From FY2022 to FY2025 the rate held between 93.2% and 94.6%, and RFEs fell back to about 19% to 23%.

The FY2025 to FY2026 decline began in the spring of 2025 and resembles the earlier period: more RFEs, a lower approval rate among petitions with an RFE, and a higher denial rate overall. The timing lines up with changes in administration and policy, but USCIS has not explained the trend, and the data alone cannot show what caused it. FY2020 is also distorted by COVID-19 disruptions.

The O-1 caseload is growing

The USCIS files for FY2025 and FY2026 also report how many O petitions were pending at the end of each month:

Receipts outpaced decisions in six of the seven quarters shown, and the pending caseload was up 71% from December 2024 to June 2026. Pending counts do not translate directly into wait times, because O petitions are eligible for premium processing (Form I-907), and the USCIS data does not show which pending petitions requested it. Processing times vary by service center and can change; check the live USCIS processing times page for the current figure, and see our post on O-1 visa processing time.

Record O-1 demand as the H-1B gets harder

Demand for the O category has grown over the long term. USCIS received 33,808 O petitions in FY2025, the most in its series back to FY2017 and 39% more than in FY2017 (24,294). The first three quarters of FY2026 (25,722) ran 4% ahead of the same period in FY2025 (24,722).

This growth coincides with changes to the H-1B program. Proclamation 10973, signed September 19, 2025, required a $100,000 payment for certain new H-1B petitions filed on or after September 21, 2025, and Proclamation 11069, signed September 18, 2026, extended the restriction to September 21, 2027. A federal district court vacated the implementing guidance on June 8, 2026; as of October 30, 2026, collection of the payment is paused and the litigation is still pending. DHS also adopted a wage-weighted selection process for the H-1B cap. The USCIS data does not show how many O-1 filers would otherwise have used the H-1B. Our post on H-1B alternatives compares the O-1 with other work visas, and our post on the O-1 visa for startup founders covers founder petitions.

Consular visa issuance tells a different story. The State Department issues O-1 visas to people abroad after USCIS approves the petition, so these figures measure a later, separate step and should not be combined with the USCIS approval rate. People who change status inside the United States never apply for a visa, and Canadian citizens are generally visa exempt.

Sources: State Department Report of the Visa Office 2024, Table XV(B) for FY2020 to FY2024; monthly nonimmigrant visa issuance reports for FY2025 and FY2026. December 2024 and January 2025 were the two highest months of O-1 issuance in the monthly series.

Is there a separate O-1A and O-1B approval rate?

Not in the current data. The most recent USCIS breakdown for O-1A alone is the fact sheet STEM-Related Petition Trends: EB-2 and O-1A Categories, FY 2018 to FY 2023. It divides approvals by completions that also include administrative closures, so its rates are not directly comparable with the tables above.

Source: USCIS fact sheet, data as of October 2023. No USCIS O-1B series or post-FY2023 O-1A figures exist, so any 2025 or 2026 O-1A or O-1B rate seen elsewhere is an estimate.

Policy changes that affect O-1 RFEs and denials

The August 2026 policy is not yet reflected in the published data, which ends June 30, 2026. July to September 2026 is the first completed quarter that includes the policy, but USCIS had not published that quarter’s data as of October 21, 2026. The two proposed rules have no legal effect unless and until DHS publishes a final rule, and a final rule could differ from the proposal. Anyone planning an O-1 extension should not assume that a prior approval will carry the same weight if the deference regulation is removed. Our post on the USCIS policy allowing denials without an RFE explains the August 2026 change.

What a denial means for someone already in O-1 status

The approval rate is an aggregate number, but a single denial has concrete consequences, and they differ by situation:

• Initial petition for someone abroad. A denial means no visa can be issued on that petition. The petitioner may file a new petition or, where the decision allows, appeal to the Administrative Appeals Office or file a motion to reopen or reconsider on Form I-290B within the period stated in the denial notice. These options cost time and government fees, and premium processing does not apply to appeals.
• Timely filed extension with the same employer. Under 8 CFR 274a.12(b)(20), a beneficiary whose employer files a timely request to extend the beneficiary’s stay may continue working for that same employer for up to 240 days after the prior period of stay expires while the request is pending, subject to the regulatory conditions. That work authorization ends when USCIS denies the petition.
• Change of employer. The 240-day rule does not cover a new employer. There is no O-1 portability comparable to H-1B portability, so a new O-1 employer generally needs its petition approved before the beneficiary may work for it.
• Status after a denial. A timely filed extension or change of status request generally places the beneficiary in a period of authorized stay while it is pending, but it does not extend the status granted on the Form I-94 past its expiration date. A denial ends that authorized-stay period. If the I-94 has already expired, the beneficiary generally has no current status to return to, and the consequences for unlawful presence and future applications depend on the filing facts and the decision. Get advice promptly about departure, a new filing, or other options.
• The grace period may not be available. Current regulations give USCIS discretion to treat an O-1 worker whose employment ends early as maintaining status for up to 60 days (8 CFR 214.1(l)(2)). That grace period is discretionary, applies once per authorized validity period, and is the subject of the September 2026 proposal to eliminate it. Do not plan around it.
• Dependents are affected. The O-3 status of a dependent spouse and unmarried children under 21 depends on the principal’s status, so a denial affects the whole family.
• A denial is not the only adverse outcome. This section covers denial of a pending petition. Revocation of an already approved petition, which USCIS may pursue on notice under 8 CFR 214.2(o), and refusal of a visa by a consular officer after petition approval follow different procedures and have different consequences. The USCIS workbooks count neither event as a denial.

What commonly leads to an RFE or denial

The O-1 category has three sets of criteria and three standards under 8 CFR 214.2(o)(3) and USCIS Policy Manual Volume 2, Part M. O-1A (sciences, education, business, athletics) requires extraordinary ability shown by sustained national or international acclaim, with a major internationally recognized award or at least three of the eight criteria at 8 CFR 214.2(o)(3)(iii)(B). O-1B in the arts requires distinction, with a significant national or international award or at least three of the six criteria at 8 CFR 214.2(o)(3)(iv)(B). O-1B in the motion picture or television industry requires extraordinary achievement, with the award or criteria at 8 CFR 214.2(o)(3)(v)(B). In each category USCIS first checks whether the record meets the required criteria, then weighs all the evidence together against the applicable standard. The data does not show which step produces denials. This list is drawn from the regulations, the Policy Manual, and non-precedent AAO decisions, not from the USCIS statistics:

1. Criteria claimed without proof of significance. Articles that mention the person but are not about their work, undocumented judging, memberships open to anyone, or a “critical role” at an organization whose reputation is not shown.
2. High salary without a comparison to others in the field and location.
3. Evidence that meets the count but not the standard. Three criteria can be documented and the petition can still fail if the record does not show sustained acclaim, distinction, or extraordinary achievement, as applicable.
4. Comparable evidence without an explanation of why a standard criterion does not readily apply (8 CFR 214.2(o)(3)(iii)(C) and (iv)(C)).
5. Consultation problems. A missing advisory opinion from the appropriate peer group, labor organization, or management organization required by 8 CFR 214.2(o)(5), or one from an organization without expertise in the field. Where no appropriate peer group exists, the regulation requires the petitioner to submit evidence establishing that fact, after which USCIS decides the petition on the record; a petition that simply omits the consultation without that evidence is incomplete.
6. Petitioner, agent, and itinerary gaps. Missing contracts or summaries of oral agreements, vague job descriptions, incomplete itineraries for multiple engagements, or an agent petition that does not document the agent’s authority and each employer.
7. Work outside the area of extraordinary ability in which the acclaim was earned.

Evidence practices that address the common problems

These are general practices, not a checklist for any particular case:

1. File as if there will be no RFE. With denials among RFE petitions making up 89.9% of FY2026 denials through June, and the August 2026 policy allowing denials without an RFE, the initial petition should be complete on its own.
2. Map every exhibit to a criterion, with the regulatory standard stated and the evidence that meets it.
3. Show significance with objective proof, such as circulation figures, award acceptance rates, citation data, and independent descriptions of an organization’s reputation.
4. Use independent expert letters with specifics. See our tips for letters of recommendation for O-1, EB-1A, and EB-2 NIW.
5. Address the overall standard directly, explaining how the evidence taken together shows sustained acclaim, distinction, or extraordinary achievement.
6. Document continued eligibility in extension filings. Under 8 CFR 214.1(c)(5) as currently in force, USCIS must give deference to a prior approval involving the same parties and the same underlying facts, subject to the exceptions for material error, material change, and new material adverse information. The petitioner still has to establish eligibility, and DHS has proposed removing the deference requirement. Submitting full evidence of continued eligibility protects the case under either rule.
7. Calendar RFE and NOID deadlines the day the notice arrives and treat them as fixed.

Frequently Asked Questions

• What is the O-1 visa approval rate in 2026?

  The USCIS approval rate for Form I-129 O petitions (O-1 and O-2 combined) is 91.0% for the first three quarters of FY2026. USCIS approved 21,321 and denied 2,096 from October 2025 through June 2026, the most recent data published as of October 21, 2026. This is a petition approval rate, not a consular visa issuance rate.

• Has the O-1 approval rate gone down?

  Yes. It fell from 94.5% in FY2024 and 93.9% in FY2025 to 91.0% in the first three quarters of FY2026, the lowest since FY2021. The denial rate nearly doubled, from 5.0% in Q4 FY2024 to 9.0% in Q3 FY2026, while approvals reached a record quarterly high.

• Why are more O-1 petitions being denied?

  USCIS does not publish denial reasons, but its data shows more petitions receiving RFEs (24.2% in FY2026 through June, up from 19.7%) and fewer of those being approved (66.8%, down from 70.9%). About 9 in 10 FY2026 denials were petitions that had received an RFE.

• What happens to my chances if I get an RFE?

  Historically, about two-thirds to three-quarters of O petitions that received an RFE were approved, compared with about 99% of petitions decided without one. In the first three quarters of FY2026, 66.8% of petitions with an RFE were approved. These are aggregate figures, not a prediction for any case.

• How long do I have to respond to an O-1 RFE?

  The deadline on the notice controls. The regulations cap the RFE response period at 12 weeks (84 days), and USCIS may set a shorter period; officers cannot grant an extension. A NOID response period cannot exceed 30 days. When USCIS serves a notice by mail, 3 days are added under 8 CFR 103.8(b). Submitting part of the requested evidence is treated as asking USCIS to decide on the record.

• Can USCIS deny an O-1 petition without sending an RFE?

  Yes. Under USCIS Policy Alert PA-2026-05, effective August 5, 2026, officers may deny without first issuing an RFE or NOID when required initial evidence is missing or the record does not establish eligibility. The policy applies to petitions pending on that date as well as later filings. Denials without an RFE were already rising before that date.

• Does a prior O-1 approval help an extension?

  Under 8 CFR 214.1(c)(5), as currently in force, USCIS must give deference to a prior Form I-129 approval involving the same parties and the same underlying facts unless there was a material error, a material change, or new material adverse information. DHS proposed removing that regulation on October 14, 2026; the proposal says officers could still consider a prior approval where relevant but would no longer be required to defer. Until a final rule takes effect, the current regulation applies. The data in this post does not separate extension decisions from initial petitions.

• How is the O-1 approval rate calculated?

  Approvals divided by approvals plus denials, using USCIS Form I-129 data for O petitions. Pending petitions are not included. The figures include O-2 petitions and both initial and extension filings.

• Is the O-1 approval rate the same as the O-1 visa approval rate at a consulate?

  No. The approval rate measures USCIS decisions on petitions. Visa issuance is a later step at a U.S. consulate; the State Department issued 20,015 O-1 visas in FY2025 based on its monthly reports.

• Is there a backlog of O-1 petitions?

  Pending O petitions rose from 5,230 in December 2024 to 8,925 in June 2026, according to USCIS. O petitions are eligible for premium processing, so pending counts do not translate directly into wait times. Processing times vary and can change; check the live USCIS processing times page.

• Can I appeal an O-1 denial?

  A denial notice states whether the decision can be appealed to the Administrative Appeals Office or challenged by a motion to reopen or reconsider, both filed on Form I-290B by the deadline in the notice. Filing a new petition is also an option in some cases. Which path makes sense depends on the reasons for denial and the beneficiary’s status, so review the notice with an attorney promptly.