U.S. Immigrant Visas in 2026: What the Data Shows by Country of Birth

Reviewed by: Andrew Diamond, Esq.

The State Department issued 26,483 U.S. immigrant visas at consulates abroad in February 2026, down from 51,058 in February 2025, a decline of about half. But the drop isn’t uniform. A New York Times analysis of the same data, published October 18, 2026, found that immigrant visas to applicants recorded as born in Canada were 142 percent above their 2023 to 2024 monthly average. Separately, a Cato Institute analysis published September 28, 2026 found that immigrant visas plus refugee admissions from 45 majority-Muslim countries fell 96 percent between December 2024 and February 2026, compared with a 36 percent decline for all other countries over the same period.

These numbers have been widely shared, including by the White House, often without the context that explains them. Each figure measures something different over a different time frame, and none captures every new permanent resident. This post focuses on February 2026 because that’s the month the three cited analyses examined. The State Department may publish new monthly reports, so check its most recent report for the most up-to-date figures.

This post explains what each figure measures and where it comes from, the policies behind the changes (including which have ended or shifted since February), and what the data means for people planning a move to the United States, including Canadian professionals and families.

Where do these immigration figures come from?

The State Department publishes monthly counts of immigrant visas issued at U.S. consulates on travel.state.gov. The reports are organized by foreign state of chargeability or place of birth and by visa class. Chargeability generally follows place of birth, but the law allows a different chargeability in defined situations (for example, a spouse or child may be charged to the principal applicant’s country under INA 202(b)), so a country’s count is not a pure birthplace tally. These are visas for people immigrating from abroad. The counts don’t include green cards approved by USCIS for people already in the United States, temporary visas such as H-1B or TN, or refugee admissions, which are tracked separately. The State Department also cautions that individual monthly reports shouldn’t be added together to produce a fiscal-year total, because the reports aren’t adjusted for later corrections.

One more distinction matters for everything that follows. An immigrant visa is not itself permanent residence. The holder becomes a lawful permanent resident only when admitted at a U.S. port of entry on that visa (INA 211(a) and INA 221). The counts below measure visas issued, not people who have completed the process.

How much have U.S. immigrant visa issuances fallen?

In February 2026, the month the cited analyses examined, the State Department issued 26,483 immigrant visas worldwide. That’s about half of the roughly 52,000 a month issued on average over 2023 and 2024, the baseline the New York Times analysis used. The analysis, as reported by other outlets, compared each region’s February 2026 total with its 2023 to 2024 monthly average.

Together, Mexico and Canada accounted for about 30 percent of the immigrant visas issued in February 2026. The same analysis reported increases for the Philippines, the United Kingdom, Turkey and Spain. Regional figures come from published reports of the New York Times analysis. The figures for Mexico, Canada, India and Japan match State Department data for the same months.

Two cautions apply when reading this table. First, February 2026 falls within the 75-country immigrant visa pause, which began January 21, 2026 and was vacated by a federal court on August 21, 2026, so later months may look different. A separate pause on immigrant visa interviews at many consulates has been reported since late August 2026. Second, the regional groupings are the analysts’ own, not State Department categories, so a country’s placement in a region can differ between reports.

Why did immigrant visas to Canadians rise?

The February 2026 State Department data shows 459 immigrant visas issued to applicants recorded under Canada. About half were employment-based, and about one in seven (67 of 459) was an EB-5 investor visa. Canada is not among the countries covered by the 2026 entry restrictions, and it wasn’t among the 75 countries covered by the visa pause while that pause was in effect. For numerically limited categories, applicants chargeable to Canada fall under the “All Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed” column of the Visa Bulletin. That column is separate from those for India, China, Mexico and the Philippines, and its cutoff dates have differed from the others. The current Visa Bulletin controls which priority dates can receive a visa in a given month.

The table below uses the State Department’s immigrant visa class symbols. The symbols E1, E2, E3 and EW are immigrant visa codes for the EB-1, EB-2 and EB-3 preference categories (principals and derivatives). They are not the E-1 treaty trader or E-2 treaty investor nonimmigrant classifications.

The rise is large in percentage terms because it starts from a small base. The 459 visas issued under Canada in February 2026 were less than 2 percent of the worldwide total. Shares in the table are rounded.

Why are Canadian professionals moving to the United States?

The figure that “nearly 40 percent of Canada’s top 1 percent” move to the United States comes from a Bank of Canada staff working paper published in December 2024 by James MacGee and Joel Rodrigue. The paper estimates that at least 40 percent of Canadians whose ability would place them in the top 1 percent of earners live outside Canada, and that 30 to 50 percent of the next nine percentiles live in the United States. These are model-based estimates, not a count of people, and the authors caution that estimates for the top 1 percent are sensitive to their modeling assumptions.

Two other sources describe the same movement in different terms. A May 21, 2026 TD Economics report, Canada’s Silent Brain Drain, described a “silent brain drain” of skilled workers, entrepreneurs and STEM graduates to the United States, citing higher pay and lower tax rates at high incomes. Statistics Canada data reported by The Hub show 18,590 Canadian residents emigrating to the United States in 2023. The TD report notes that permanent migration data understate the movement, because much of it now happens through U.S. employer-sponsored visas.

What happened to immigration from majority-Muslim countries?

The 96 percent figure comes from a Cato Institute analysis of State Department and refugee admissions data for 45 majority-Muslim countries, published September 28, 2026. It combines immigrant visas and permanent refugee admissions. Over the same period, the analysis found a 36 percent decline for all other countries.

Declines varied by country. Pakistan fell 97.9 percent, Turkey had the smallest decline at 8 percent, and Qatar, Indonesia and the United Arab Emirates increased. The White House shared the Cato chart, and the analysis’s author has argued that several of the underlying policies are unlawful. Several of those policies have been challenged in federal court, and that litigation is ongoing; the current legal effect of any ruling depends on the specific order, who it covers, and whether it has been stayed or appealed.

Which policies are behind the changes?

Several measures since January 2025 affect who can receive an immigrant visa. Their status has changed during 2026, and some remain in litigation. The table reflects status as reported as of November 6, 2026.

As reported, the entry restrictions do not revoke visas issued before January 1, 2026, and they exempt lawful permanent residents and dual nationals traveling on a passport from a country not on the list. The exact country list, exceptions and waivers are set out in Proclamation 10998 itself, and anyone affected should read the proclamation’s text rather than rely on a summary.

The DHS public charge rule removed the 2022 regulatory list of exemptions at 8 CFR 212.23, but it didn’t remove the exemptions and waivers that the INA itself provides (for example, for refugees, asylees and certain other categories); those continue to apply where the statute provides them. For benefits received before September 18, 2026, the rule states that DHS considers that receipt consistently with the 2022 rule, which focused on public cash assistance for income maintenance and long-term institutionalization at government expense. The rule applies to USCIS decisions on Adjustment of Status and to applications for admission. It doesn’t rewrite the State Department’s own standard for immigrant visa applicants abroad, who remain subject to the public charge ground under INA 212(a)(4) as applied by consular officers under the Foreign Affairs Manual (9 FAM 302.8).

Form I-864 is generally required only for applicants covered by INA 212(a)(4)(C) (family-based immigrants and certain employment-based immigrants where a relative filed the petition or has a significant ownership interest in the petitioning entity) or INA 212(a)(4)(D), subject to the statutory exemptions.

What does this mean if you are planning to immigrate?

For Canadians, the routes listed below weren’t changed by the 2026 entry restrictions or the 75-country pause, although each still depends on meeting its own eligibility requirements under current law and policy. A number of applicants start in temporary status and later file a separate immigrant petition and green card application. More detail on one common path is on our H-1B page.

Whether a visa number is available also depends on where you apply. For Adjustment of Status, USCIS announces each month which Visa Bulletin chart (Final Action Dates or Dates for Filing) it will accept for Form I-485 filings (8 CFR 245.1(g)(1)). For consular cases, the Final Action Dates chart in the State Department’s Visa Bulletin governs when the visa can be issued (9 FAM 503).

The following points apply regardless of country of chargeability:

1. Applicants from countries covered by the entry restrictions should confirm whether an exception or waiver applies before scheduling a consular interview, and whether Adjustment of Status inside the United States is available as an alternative. An entry restriction under INA 212(f) suspends or limits entry; it does not automatically create a general statutory bar to filing Form I-485, but the answer depends on the proclamation’s exact text, any implementing guidance, and all Adjustment of Status requirements, including admissibility. Confirm this with counsel before relying on it.
2. Public charge is now assessed under different frameworks depending on where and when you apply, as shown in the table above. A Form I-485 postmarked or submitted on or after September 18, 2026 is decided under the DHS 2026 rule and the USCIS Policy Manual, Volume 8, Part G. A consular case is decided under 9 FAM 302.8.
3. Don’t plan around a pending court case. Several of the policies in the table above are in litigation. A court ruling against a policy doesn’t necessarily give relief to every applicant and doesn’t automatically require an agency to reopen a refused or paused application unless the order or the agency’s implementing guidance says so. Check the State Department’s and USCIS’s current guidance at the time you file.

Frequently Asked Questions

• Is legal immigration from Canada to the U.S. really up 142 percent?

  The figure refers to immigrant visas issued abroad to applicants recorded under Canada in the State Department’s monthly report. A New York Times analysis found the February 2026 total 142 percent above the 2023 to 2024 monthly average. In numbers, 459 visas were issued that month, less than 2 percent of the worldwide total. It doesn’t count Canadians who received green cards through Adjustment of Status inside the United States.

• Did immigration from majority-Muslim countries fall 96 percent?

  A Cato Institute analysis published September 28, 2026 found that immigrant visas plus refugee admissions from 45 majority-Muslim countries fell from 21,096 in December 2024 to 808 in February 2026, a 96 percent decline. The comparison starts from a high month and ends during the 75-country pause, so the percentage for later months may differ.

• Where can I find official immigrant visa statistics?

  The State Department publishes monthly immigrant visa issuances by foreign state of chargeability or place of birth and by visa class on travel.state.gov. USCIS publishes separate data on green cards approved through Adjustment of Status, including quarterly reports by category and country of chargeability.

• Do these figures include green cards approved inside the U.S.?

  No. The State Department figures count immigrant visas issued at consulates abroad. Green cards approved by USCIS through Adjustment of Status aren’t included, so the figures understate total new permanent residents.

• Do 40 percent of Canada’s top 1 percent move to the U.S.?

  A December 2024 Bank of Canada staff working paper estimated that at least 40 percent of Canadians whose ability would place them in the top 1 percent of earners live outside Canada. It’s a model-based estimate, not a count of people who have moved.

• Is the 75-country immigrant visa pause still in effect?

  No. The district court in CLINIC v. Rubio vacated the pause on August 21, 2026, and the State Department announced on August 28, 2026 that it is no longer in effect. Separately, a pause on immigrant visa interviews at many consulates has been reported since late August 2026. The DHS public charge rule took effect September 18, 2026 for USCIS and port-of-entry decisions, and the expanded entry restrictions under Proclamation 10998 remain a separate policy.

• Does the September 18, 2026 public charge rule apply to my consular immigrant visa case?

  The DHS rule applies to Adjustment of Status applications postmarked or submitted on or after September 18, 2026 and to applications for admission at a port of entry on or after that date. Consular officers apply the same statutory ground, INA 212(a)(4), under the State Department’s Foreign Affairs Manual (9 FAM 302.8) rather than the DHS rule. Confirm the current State Department standard before your interview.

• Do Canadians get green cards faster than other applicants?

  There’s no special green card category for Canadians. Applicants chargeable to Canada fall under the “All Chargeability Areas Except Those Listed” column of the Visa Bulletin, which is separate from the columns for India, China, Mexico and the Philippines. Whether that column is current for a given category changes month to month, so check the current bulletin. Processing times also vary and can change.

• Do the 2026 entry restrictions affect green card holders?

  As reported, Proclamation 10998 of December 16, 2025 exempts lawful permanent residents and does not revoke visas issued before January 1, 2026. Dual nationals traveling on a passport from a country not on the list are also exempt. Read the proclamation’s own exception list before traveling.

• Can I file for a green card while in TN status?

  TN is a nonimmigrant classification that is not a dual-intent category, so the applicant must show temporary intent at each admission and extension. A separate immigrant petition (for example, Form I-140) can be filed for a TN worker, and an approved Form I-140 by itself doesn’t grant or change status. The intent analysis is fact-specific: filing Form I-485, applying for an immigrant visa, or seeking a new TN admission or extension after immigrant processing has started can each raise questions, and filing Form I-485 can affect travel and readmission in TN status. Plan the timing with counsel.

• Will the EB-5 investment amount change?

  The EB-5 Reform and Integrity Act of 2022 set the minimum at $1,050,000, or $800,000 in a targeted employment area or infrastructure project, and directs an automatic adjustment on January 1, 2027 and every five years after based on the consumer price index. As of November 6, 2026, the adjusted amounts have not been announced in the sources we checked; confirm with USCIS before committing funds.