H-1B Visa Lottery Changes in 2026: Overview of the “Weighted” Selection

Introduction

The H-1B visa has long been one of the most sought-after pathways for foreign nationals seeking to work in the United States in professional, specialty occupations requiring at least a bachelor’s degree or its equivalent.

Demand for H-1B visas has consistently and significantly outpaced supply. For years, this imbalance led U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) to rely on a randomized lottery system in which every valid registration carried equal weight, regardless of the salary offered, the seniority of the position, or the complexity of the work involved.

That is now changing. Beginning with the FY 2027 cap season, for which the registration period runs from noon Eastern Time (ET) on March 4 to noon ET on March 19, 2026, the selection process is shifting in a meaningful way under a DHS final rule published in the Federal Register.

Rather than treating all registrations equally, USCIS is moving toward a weighted selection model that favors higher-paid and higher-skilled positions by generally giving greater selection weight to registrations associated with higher wage levels (Level I–IV tiers) under the Department of Labor wage-level framework used in H-1B filings.

The stated policy goal behind this shift is to better align the H-1B program with wage protection and broader labor market considerations, a change that has significant implications for employers and beneficiaries alike as they prepare for the upcoming registration window.

Prior vs. New H-1B Selection Approach

FY 2027 H-1B Cap Registration Snapshot (USCIS)

• Registration window: Noon ET March 4, 2026 to Noon ET March 19, 2026
• Rule effective date: February 27, 2026
• Registration fee: $215 per beneficiary registration
• Selection approach: Weighted selection (not all registrations are treated equally)

How the new H-1B lottery works (high level)

• A U.S. employer submits an electronic registration for a foreign national during the registration period.
• If registrations exceed the annual cap, USCIS conducts a selection process.
• Under the new framework, registrations are not all treated equally. Some may receive greater weight based on wage level (Level I–IV tiers).
• Selection still happens within the fixed cap limits (regular cap and the advanced-degree exemption).

Why the Change from Random to “Weighted” Selection

USCIS has framed the change as an effort to prioritize higher-wage and higher-skilled roles within the fixed numerical cap.

The argument supporting the rule is that H-1B visas should supplement, not undercut, the U.S. labor market and that wage level can serve as a proxy for skill and economic value.

While policy goals focus on wage protection, practical impacts may differ across industries, geographic markets, and job levels. Entry-level and lower prevailing wage roles may face comparatively lower selection probability under a weighted system.

What this could mean in practice

• Entry-level and lower wage-level roles may have lower odds under a weighted system.
• Practical impacts may differ by industry, geographic market, and job level.
• Outcomes may vary by employer, role, and labor market.

The Basics of the H-1B Cap

Even with the rule change, the statutory cap remains unchanged:

• 65,000 visas are allocated under the regular cap.
• 20,000 additional numbers are reserved for beneficiaries holding U.S. master’s degrees or higher.
• Selection occurs within these cap constraints.

Remember that demand frequently exceeds available numbers, and eligibility for the H-1B lottery is generally limited to foreign nationals offered a qualifying specialty occupation position by a U.S. employer willing to sponsor them and complete the electronic registration process during the designated period.

What “Higher Skill” and “Higher Pay” Could Mean Practically

The weighted selection process appears tied to prevailing wage levels assigned through the Labor Condition Application (LCA) framework. Higher wage levels often correspond to more senior, specialized, or complex roles.

Does H-1B prioritize salary?

Under the new rule, wage level may influence selection probability. However, while a higher wage level can improve odds, it alone does not guarantee selection. Additionally, lower-wage roles are not categorically excluded.

Is H-1B purely luck?

Historically, selection was conducted through a computerized random selection process when registrations exceeded the cap. Under the new system, chance may still play a role, but entries are no longer equally weighted so some entrants have a better chance than others.

How to increase chances in the H-1B lottery?

While there are no guarantees, accurate job classification and wage-level selection, and ensuring the position genuinely qualifies as a specialty occupation is increasingly important.

Strategic Considerations

Effective Date and First Affected Season

The effective date of the “weighted” selection rule is February 27, 2026, which means the first season affected by the rule change is Fiscal Year 2027. Specifically, the FY2027 H-1B cap registration period will run from noon ET on March 4, 2026 to noon ET on March 19, 2026. The registration fee is $215 per beneficiary registration.

How This Fits With Other H-1B Policy Shifts

The weighted selection rule does not exist in isolation. It coincides with other policy shifts, including the controversial $100,000 supplemental payment applicable to certain new H-1B petitions filed for beneficiaries outside the United States.

What is the new $100k H-1 rule?

A presidential proclamation introduced that an additional $100,000 payment is required for new H-1B petitions filed on or after September 21, 2025 that are subject to the Proclamation.

USCIS guidance indicates the payment generally applies to certain new H-1B petitions (not routine extensions/amendments), but employers should confirm whether a case is subject to the Proclamation based on USCIS guidance.

Planning Considerations for Employers and H-1B Candidates

• Confirm the role qualifies as a specialty occupation.
• Consider confirming that the role qualifies as a specialty occupation.
• Consider reviewing wage level positioning carefully and honestly.
• Ensure the job description and minimum requirements align with the selected wage level.
• Plan registration timelines early.
• Identify any potential supplemental fee exposure in advance.
• Evaluate alternative visa pathways where appropriate.

Frequently Asked Questions

• Q: What is changing in the H-1B lottery for FY 2027?

  A: The selection process is shifting from a purely random lottery to a weighted system that is intended to prioritize higher-wage and higher-skilled roles.

• Q: When does the weighted H-1B selection rule take effect?

  A: The rule becomes effective February 27, 2026, with implementation expected in the FY 2027 registration season, which is March 4, 2026 to March 19, 2026.

• Q: Does a higher salary improve H-1B selection chances?

  A: Under the new framework, higher prevailing wage levels may receive increased weight, potentially improving selection probability.

• Q: What does “higher-skilled” mean for H-1B lottery weighting?

  A: It may correlate with higher prevailing wage levels and more complex or senior-level specialty occupation roles.

• Q: Will lower-wage H-1B registrations still be allowed?

  A: Yes. Lower-wage positions remain eligible but may have comparatively lower weighting in selection, meaning the likelihood of their selection is less than the higher-weighted positions.

• Q: How does the 65,000 cap and 20,000 master’s cap work?

  A: USCIS first runs the regular cap selection. Registrations not selected that qualify for the U.S. advanced-degree exemption are then included in a second selection for the additional 20,000 numbers.

• Q: Could employers change job offers to improve selection odds?

  A: Job duties and wage levels must accurately reflect the role. Artificial adjustments could create compliance risks.

• Q: How might this affect recent graduates and entry-level roles?

  A: Entry-level roles may face comparatively lower weighting if wage levels correspond to lower prevailing wage tiers.

• Q: What is the reported additional $100,000 H-1B fee about?

  A: It refers to an additional $100,000 payment required for certain new H-1B petitions filed on or after September 21, 2025 that are subject to the Proclamation. USCIS guidance indicates it generally applies to certain new filings (not routine extensions or amendments), but employers should confirm whether a specific case is covered.

• Q: How should employers prepare for the next cap registration season?

  A: Employers should review workforce planning, wage positioning, compliance practices, and registration strategy well in advance of the registration window.

Conclusion

The 2026 changes to the H-1B selection process represent a significant policy shift from randomness toward wage-based prioritization. While the annual cap remains unchanged, how beneficiaries are selected under that cap is evolving.

Employers and foreign professionals should approach the upcoming registration seasons with heightened strategic planning. Wage levels, job design, compliance, and long-term immigration strategy are now more intertwined than ever.

As the weighted system unfolds in practice, outcomes may vary. Careful preparation and staying current with USCIS guidance will be important as this new phase of the H-1B program is implemented.